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Note: If you haven’t heard of forecasting, I would recommend at least skimming the Superforecaster Wikipedia page to get a brief overview of what I’m talking about before diving in. Some sorts of people are better at forecasting than other sorts of people. The

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1) An article making the case that we all need to stop talking about imposter syndrome [paywalled, FT]: This misnomer is part of a wider trend that too…

Jun 27

Here are some random studies I found interesting, unrelated to any argument I wanted to make or any more coherent piece I wanted to write. Most of them…

Jun 22

Lots of people I admire have made the case that most people can do more good by being extremely ambitious. The argument is this: a bet on an outcome…

Jun 15

Lots of the people I associate with (largely Effective Altruists, Rationalists, and forecasters) seem to be believers in something that I will call…

Jun 7

Here are three questions I think are worth asking yourself, as well as my answers to them. What’s the most plausible way in which you could do a lot of…

Jun 3

1) Jonathan Haidt has lunch with the FT. 2) Practical veganism, in Works in Progress: If you want to reduce your suffering footprint and don’t want to…

May 31

Does capital punishment work? I hate the idea of the death penalty - not because I think there’s a load of good evidence that it doesn’t really deter…

May 24

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