Why Labour might do better than expected in the next election

Most of the stuff I’m about to say is pretty obvious, and I think most people who think about politics and elections are aware of most (if not all) of it, but I thought it would be interesting to jot down some thoughts on why things are going badly for Labour and what exactly needs to change for them to do better in the next election. One reason that Labour did badly in the last election and continues to do badly in the polls is the increased importance of cultural issues (read: Brexit and immigration) relative to economic and material issues in determining how people vote. The table above shows (sorry, this part is slightly jargony) the extent to which the negative correlation between holding a different view to a party on immigration and the likelihood of voting for that party has increased substantially between 2016 and 2019 — that is to say, if I believe that my views on immigration are different to Labour’s views on immigration, that is more likely to make me refuse to vote for L…