Extreme Honesty

Lots of the people I associate with (largely Effective Altruists, Rationalists, and forecasters) seem to be believers in something that I will call ‘extreme honesty’. This is where, rather than just writing things you believe to be true, you go to extreme lengths to ensure that people can verify that what you’re writing is likely to be true. For instance, rather than merely writing a piece about what you think is likely to happen in the war in Ukraine, you also make an explicit forecast about the chance of some verifiable/falsifiable outcome occurring. This allows people to check your track record, and get an understanding of whether what you’re saying is likely to be correct. As Benjamin Todd writes of a set of forecasts related to the war in Ukraine: “

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