Michael Story is Director of the Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting who is working to make forecasting useful, both to policy-makers and ordinary people. Previously, he worked as a Managing Director at Good Judgment after qualifying as a Superforecaster in the original Good Judgment Project. He has thought a lot about how to make forecasting better, and I thought it would be interesting to get his views on the current state of forecasting, what mistakes forecasters are likely to make, why companies haven’t been as keen on internal prediction markets, and more!
Very interesting read, thanks!