I bought Bitcoin in 2013. I was sixteen years old, and if I remember correctly, one Bitcoin was around £100 (it could’ve been anywhere between £30 and…
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I take more flights than I should. I try to be a good person in other ways, but I definitely take way too many flights. So far in 2022, I’ve been to…
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1) Tom Chivers’ piece on the evidence about the advantages of breastfeeding: The study’s authors found “no benefit of a breastfeeding promotion…
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Michael Story is Director of the Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting who is working to make forecasting useful, both to policy-makers and ordinary…
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Noah Smith recently wrote a great post giving advice for people who want to write on Substack. He’s a lot more successful than me, so my advice is less…
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I love reading academic papers. I probably enjoy them more than reading longer non-fiction books, because I can get the interesting part just by reading…
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Note: If you haven’t heard of forecasting, I would recommend at least skimming the Superforecaster Wikipedia page to get a brief overview of what I’m…
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1) An article making the case that we all need to stop talking about imposter syndrome [paywalled, FT]: This misnomer is part of a wider trend that too…
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Here are some random studies I found interesting, unrelated to any argument I wanted to make or any more coherent piece I wanted to write. Most of them…
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Lots of people I admire have made the case that most people can do more good by being extremely ambitious. The argument is this: a bet on an outcome…
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Lots of the people I associate with (largely Effective Altruists, Rationalists, and forecasters) seem to be believers in something that I will call…
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Here are three questions I think are worth asking yourself, as well as my answers to them. What’s the most plausible way in which you could do a lot of…
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